Panel Background

The 16-member High-Level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change will present its long-awaited report to Secretary-General Kofi Annan on Thursday, December 2, 2004. The panel was appointed by the Secretary-General in November 2003, and was tasked with examining * the major threats and challenges the world faces in the broad field of peace and security, including economic and social issues insofar as they relate to peace and security, and making recommendations for the elements of a collective response. *

According to the terms of reference for the panel's work, the members are *not being asked to formulate policies on specific issues, nor on the UN's role in specific places. Rather, [the panel] is being asked to provide a new

assessment of the challenges ahead, and to recommend the changes which will be required if these challenges are to be met effectively through collective action.* Specifically, the panel has been asked to examine the nature of today's global threats; identify ways of dealing with such threats though collective action; and recommend changes that can * ensure collective action, including but not limited to a review of the principal organs of the United Nations. *

The chair of the panel is Anand Panyarachun, former prime minister of Thailand; among the members are Gro Harlem Brundtland, former prime minister of Norway and director-general of the World Health Organization; Gareth Evans, president of the International Crisis Group and former Australian foreign minister; David Hannay, former British permanent representative to the UN; Enrique Iglesias, president of the Inter-American Bank; Amre Moussa, secretary-general of the League of Arab States; Sadako Ogata, former United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees; Nafis Sadik, former executive director of the United Nations Population Fund; Salim Salim, former secretary-general of the Organization of African Unity; and Brent Scowcroft, former US National Security Adviser.

The panel members have met throughout the year, and have been assisted in their work by the United Nations Foundation and the Stanley Foundation, in particular, both of whom have organized meetings bringing together panel members with experts in the fields in which the panel will make recommendations. For details about these sessions, please visit the United Nations and Global Security program at www.unfoundation.org and the Stanley Foundation at www.stanleyfoundation.org.

It is worth noting that the Secretary-General has referred to the work of the panel on a continuing basis during the past year. In March, he told the Council on Foreign Relations, * I appointed a High-Level Panel of very experienced people to try and help us forge a new consensus-first on what the main threats that humanity faces in this new century; and secondly, on how our policies and institutions can be adapted and improved to deal with those threats. * More recently, in his UN Day message, he wrote, * I believe we can build a better United Nations. That's why I will soon be putting before world leaders a package of measures to renew the organization. It will be up to your leaders to respond with vision and good will. We are in a new era. We need a new United Nations. Let's make it happen. *

Potential Recommendations

There has been much speculation on the recommendations that will be contained in the panel's report, most of which has focused on reforming the Security Council. While it is likely that the panel will indeed offer a proposal for enlarging the Council, it is hoped that the public's attention will not be limited to this issue. Earlier this summer, The Economist reported that the panel had reached consensus on a proposal to expand the Council from the current fifteen members to twenty-four members organized into three tiers: the first composed of the current five permanent members retaining the veto; a new second tier composed of seven or eight semi-permanent members without a veto elected on a regional basis for a renewable term of four to five years; and a third tier of rotating members elected for non-renewable two-year terms. More recently, there have been reports that the panel will recommend an alternative: expansion of the Council from fifteen to twenty-four members with six new permanent members representing the world's regions and three additional non-permanent members elected for two-year rotating terms.

Based on early reports, it appears that the panel has focused its work on six sets of issues, including the following:

Interstate War

The panel's report will most likely focus on Article 51 (Chapter VII) of the United Nations Charter allowing the use of force in self-defense * if an attack occurs. * While Chapter VII of the Charter provides for the use of force upon authorization by the Security Council, it is increasingly recognized that countries may feel compelled to take action against a perceived threat before being attacked-and absent a Security Council authorization. For this reason, the panel will attempt to reach consensus on pre-emption in the absence of an immediate threat. Recent reports indicate that the panel will call for the adoption of 'guidelines' that would enhance the legitimacy of the use of force in such cases.

Civil Violence

In the aftermath of the Cold War, the United Nations has been increasingly called upon to intervene in civil conflict. The High-Level panel will likely revisit progress to date by UN member states in implementing proposals made by the Brahimi panel (Report of the Panel on United Nations Peace Operations, August 2000) to improve the effectiveness of United Nations peacekeeping. Progress in implementing recommendations of the panel has been slow, and the panel may be able to give further impetus to the effort. At the same time, it is expected that the panel will reaffirm the * responsibility to protect *, i.e. that the international community has a right and a responsibility to protect a country's population in the case where a government abdicates its responsibility.

Weapons of Mass Destruction

The panel will likely find that the international nonproliferation regime is in crisis, requiring modification of the nonproliferation treaty. There may also be some discussion of the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI), a United States-launched effort to facilitate multilateral cooperation in seizing shipments of WMD-related equipment, materials and technology.

Terrorism

The panel will examine the effectiveness of the UN's Counter-Terrorism Committee (CTC) created by Security Council resolution 1373 (2001). Over the past several years, the Committee has been at the center of an effort to facilitate the exchange of information concerning member states' compliance with the terms of twelve existing counter-terrorism treaties. There has been some criticism of the work of the committee, particularly concerning a lack of technical assistance on the part of the CTC to countries that may not be able to implement the technical requirements of specialized treaties dealing with money-laundering, for example. At the same time, the recent creation of an executive directorate for the Committee is a signal that the CTC could become more active in this area.

It has been rumored that the panel will be critical of the United Nations' low profile in condemning all forms of terrorism. Indeed, The Economist, in its issue of November 18, 2004, indicates that panel members have been able to agree on a definition of terrorism; according to the report, the panel *has accepted that any politically motivated violence against innocent civilians should be regarded as terrorism, and condemned. *

Organized Crime

Early indications are that the panel will find that while the international legal foundation for fighting organized crime is sufficient, implementation is lacking.

Socio-Economic Threats

Given the concerns shared by members of the High-Level panel, it is likely that the report will contain strong language urging UN member states to be aggressive in meeting socio-economic threats to collective security. For example, there are indications that the panel will call for the creation of a global health monitoring unit to be housed in the World Health Organization.

Roll-out of the Panel's Report

The following provisional schedule is envisaged for release of the report:

2 December: High-Level Panel presents report to the Secretary-General. Panel members brief UN press corps on the report. UN Foundation-sponsored public event at the Bar of the City of New York.

3 December: Breakfast program for business constituency to be organized by UN Foundation and UNA-USA Business Council for the United Nations. Essay by Secretary-General to appear in current issue of The Economist.

Other events may be planned; these are expected, but are subject to change.

Related UN Events in 2005

The High-Level Panel's report is only one element in a process by which the Secretary-General will propose major changes in the way that the United Nations functions, and this process will continue through much of 2005. In effect, the High-Level Panel will present its report to the Secretary-General who is free to accept or to reject any or all of its expected almost one hundred recommendations. In January 2005, Jeffrey Sachs, head of the Millennium Project commissioned by the Secretary-General, will release a report concerning implementation of the Millennium Development Goals with a view to recommending steps that need to be taken in order to achieve the goals set for 2015. The Secretary-General will review both reports and will draft his own report -a synthesis of the two- that will serve as the basis for discussions among world leaders at a summit planned for September 14 to 16, 2005, in New York. As such, there will be many opportunities for UNA-USA and like-minded organizations to encourage Americans to think about the future of the United Nations and their government's role in making it a more effective institution.